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COLD LAND PROCESSES IN THE NORT
Rationale: The stability of the ecosystems in more than a half of Northern Eurasia and north North America (in Cold Land Regions, CLR) relies on the stability of seasonal snow cover and ice that, so far, holds these ecosystems together. Breach of this stability affects societies and economic activity in high latitudes. Currently, changes in terrestrial cryosphere are among the strongest contemporary environmental changes. However, these changes as well as their associated feedbacks and impacts are still inadequately described within the contemporary Earth System Models. During the 20th century, we observed snow cover and glaciers’ retreat and permafrost thaw affecting water supply, land cover, and the carbon cycle. Glacier wastage has affected sea level rise, water freshening, sea ice reduction, bioproductivity changing, and redistributing gravity field patterns. Further consequences are difficult to predict. Paleodata, instrumental observations, and model simulations of future climate changes suggest significant and rapid changes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and land cover occur in high latitudes particularly over the CLR. It is critical to develop the ability to measure, monitor, and model the processes that will provide the possibility for accurate future projections of climatic and environmental changes in these regions because these changes have the potential to impact the Global Earth System and human society. We need (a) to understand how the changes in these regions affect regional and global biogeochemical, surface energy and water cycles, as well as human societies and how to develop the capability to predict changes to support global projections, informed decision making, and numerous applications in these regions; (b) to establish (restore, develop, utilize) an observational system to retrieve and properly interpret information about the current state and changes of the environment in the CLR; (c) assess their interactions with global climate and society; and (d) enhance the predictive capability of Earth System models to account for environmental changes over the Northern Hemisphere and the globe. The overarching science question of this IPY activity is: How do terrestrial cryosphere dynamics in the Northern Hemisphere interact with and alter the biosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere of the Earth? The Science question dictates the following research strategy: We have to define first (a) what deficiencies currently exist in understanding the major processes in cold land regions? (b) what are the major sources of uncertainties? (c) what information is needed to run (and/or develop) sufficiently complete models that describe these processes? Thereafter, targeted field campaigns, data gathering /recovery, and/or new networks should be initiated. Within the triad: observations, process studies, and modeling, the role of Process Studies in Cold Land Regions is to improve models that reproduce the changes in the Earth System behavior in response to the changes in high latitudes. Currently existing models do not describe sufficiently well the critical processes of interactions and their dynamics within terrestrial ecosystems, atmosphere, hydrosphere, coastal zone, and cryosphere in CLR. Also, the initial state of some of components of the Earth System in the Regions (e.g., the cryosphere) is not yet well known. We need to justify both the innovative research and efforts to improve observations in the region that otherwise could be ineffective investments in old technology and practices. Three terrestrial components of the cryosphere in the CLR of the Northern Hemisphere: snow cover, permafrost, and small glaciers will be studied as well as their interactions with society and potential feedbacks to the Global Earth System. Within each area of research the foci of studies will be on (a) the models’ development to improve understanding and projections of the dynamics of the Earth System in high latitudes and its interactions with the Global Earth System and (b) creation of conditions for seamless implementation of these models (e.g., organizing the input data stream for them) in a quest of answering the overarching science question and serving numerous practical applications. Tasks for snow cover studies. Major issues: (a) Global Earth System modeling and numerous applications require high resolution global snow water equivalent measurements, their extension in the past, and a proper physical description of processes describing snow dynamics; (b) Having a new Cold Land Processes Mission (CLPM) as a long-term objective, the IPY is the right time for extensive and focused groundwork to secure the Mission success. Tools: (a) Extensive field campaigns and network legacy to guaranty the CLPM calibration and ongoing support over the Hemisphere; (b) Studies of compatibility of various (in-situ and remote) instrumentation and data rescue efforts; (c) Development of a portable (scalable) physically based model of short-term and seasonal snow evolution applicable to rough terrain and/or in the presence of vegetation. Tasks for permafrost studies. Major issue: Permafrost changes (warming and thawing) have global consequences => these processes should be well understood, monitored, modeled, and projected. Mitigation strategies should be timely developed. Tools: (a) Establish and support a comprehensive permafrost monitoring system in the high latitudes including the Arctic coastal zone; (b) Develop reliable models accounting for changes in the permafrost and its interactions with terrestrial ecosystems, hydrology, atmosphere, and society and incorporate them into emerging global Earth System and reanalyses models; (c) Develop specialty models that seamlessly account for specifics of permafrost environment in practical applications (coastal erosion, cold land engineering, etc.) Tasks for glaciers’ studies. Major issues: Increase in accuracy of monitoring of glaciers' dynamics from space and in situ observations to resolve the major uncertainties of the global glaciers' changes, first of all surface area and distribution versus elevation and surface mass balance with extrapolation from the observational network to the larger glacier systems. Tools: (a) Develop a conceptual model for areal generalization of the glaciers’ characteristics and their monitoring; (b) Develop a portable model that describes the processes of glaciers’ change in response to climate change; the model should be useable as a block in the regional and global climate models as well as for water and natural hazard management; (c) Repeat regular monitoring using laser altimetry for glaciers in CLR and blending these observations with existing long-term observational network data; (d) Assessment of direct anthropogenic impact on glaciers’ dynamics (e.g., due to air pollution). Mostly small glaciers of the Northern Hemisphere will be studied within this IPY proposal. Tasks for socio-economic studies. Major issue: Fragile environment and harsh climatic conditions in high latitudes put additional stress on societal sustainability during rapid environmental changes. Tools: (a) Determine the impacts of environmental changes in high latitudes on humans in particular on the indigenous population; (b) Develop models of economic effect, both positive and negative, of the ongoing and possible climate changes, snow- glaciers- and permafrost-related hazards; (c) Develop the societal feedback loop models for use in Global Earth models; (d) Develop mitigation strategies for the populations negatively affected by contemporary and projected environmental changes. Tasks for integration studies. Major issue: Need for suite of regional models that incorporate peculiarities of interactions of climate, cryosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere of high latitudes and serve as a reliable internal block to Global Earth Models. Tools: (a) Develop regional models (e.g., reanalysis, WRF, LDAS) with specialty blocks (hydrology, cold land, coastal processes, ecosystem, societal interactions) incorporating major feedbacks that are specific for high latitudinal land areas and are of global importance (e.g., potentially powerful permafrost thawing over CLR and the Arctic coastal zone – greenhouse gases emission positive feedback); (b) Develop (improve) regional numerical weather forecast models to account for specifics of the high latitudes (including specific societal needs); (c) Verify Global Climate Models’ projections in the high latitudes; (d) Organize input data stream (remote and in-situ) sufficient for operating the system that can answer the overarching science question and serve numerous practical applications. Summary provided by http://classic.ipy.org/development/eoi/proposal-details.php?id=138