A - C
CARE
Short Title: CARE Project URL: http://www.ipy-care.org/ Proposal URL: http://classic.ipy.org/development/eoi/proposal-details.php?id=28 The overall objective of CARE/ASR is to explore, quantify and model Arctic climate change, its interaction with the climate in lower latitudes and its impact on Arctic marine ecosystems, and to assess the socio-economic consequences for Europe. The specific objectives are: 1. To determine the processes responsible for the past and present variability and changes in the Arctic climate system and to improve their representation in climate models. 2. To understand the degree to which recent variability and changes in the Arctic climate system, e.g., shrinking sea-ice cover, thawing permafrost and increased methane emission, are of natural or of anthropogenic origin. 3. To understand and quantify the response of marine biological processes to climate change and their impact on Arctic marine ecosystems and the air-sea CO2 fluxes and to improve their representation in ecosystem models and inclusion in global climate models. 4. To quantify the impact of the Arctic freshwater budget on the global thermohaline circulation (THC) and its impact on climate, and to assess possible impact on rapid climate change, sea-level change and sequestration of CO2. 5. To improve capabilities to predict Arctic climate on decadal and longer time scales and design optimal components of an integrated monitoring and forecasting system. 6. To assess the impact of climate change in the Arctic on the THC, marine ecosystems and fisheries, transportation, offshore industry and oil and gas production, coastal infrastructures, and on climate in Europe.